Pre-FOMC Monday: S&P short stays pending, Dow diverges from tech

Morning review at 06:30 UTC: by design no new ideas open in this slot, since US indices and stocks start trading at 13:30 UTC and pre-market spreads distort every level. Overnight the S&P 500 future rose 0.15% (7671.0 vs 7659.75), which implies a cash level near 7635 against Friday's close of 7623.68. Friday's cash high was 7660.15, so the open short idea CS-2026-0024 (entry 7690, stop 7721.50, target 7627) was never filled: it stays pending until it expires tomorrow at 20:00 UTC, with the 7668-7703 shelf still acting as the resistance to sell into. On clean daily cash bars: S&P 500 MA20 7727, ATR14 72, price 1.28 ATR below the average; Nasdaq 100 MA20 30224, ATR14 499, price 2.60 ATR below, which is a late entry by our band; Dow MA20 51721, ATR14 533, price 1.16 ATR above. The Dow is the only index above its average, so the industrial-versus-tech divergence is the thing to watch at the US open. VIX closed at 19.45, up 5.5% on Friday. The FOMC decides on Wednesday 28 October, after the open idea's expiry, and there is no US data today; the German Ifo at 09:00 UTC is the only release. Three instruments screened, none publishable from pre-market.