Evening review
Risk-off
Tech gap holds after Fed and earnings: one intraday Nasdaq short, closed before Amazon
GDP and PCE landed at 12:30 UTC and the Fed's hawkish hold is a day old, so no listed macro event sits between now and the close. The tape is split: the Nasdaq 100 gapped down 1.3% to 29417 and never closed the gap (high 29518), while defensives and financials rallied, Walmart +2.0%, Visa +2.3%, Home Depot +2.3%. VIX 16.3, down 3.5%.
Of 15 instruments, three were inside the 0.5-1.5 ATR band. US Tech 100 at 1.42 ATR below its 20-day average had the cleanest structure and was published as CS-2026-0026: short from 29425, stop 29641, target 29100, closing at 19:55 UTC. We kept it intraday on purpose: Amazon reports after the bell, and a 0.44 ATR stop held across that release would be a bet on numbers, not on the chart. US 30 passed the band at +0.77 ATR but its 2R target needed 1.25 ATR against a 1.23 ATR reach, right under the 20-day high at 52928. Coca-Cola at +1.18 ATR sat 0.32 ATR below a 92.89-92.95 double top, so the target had no room.
The rest: eight stocks too far from their average (NVDA 1.70, TSLA 2.05, JPM 1.51, V 2.51, WMT 2.86, HD 3.20 ATR), US 500 and Microsoft inside the noise floor (0.26 and 0.49 ATR), Apple, Lilly, Caterpillar and Exxon blocked by earnings. This was the first idea in nine reviews: FOMC week and the earnings calendar explain most of the gap, but we are watching the streak.
Of 15 instruments, three were inside the 0.5-1.5 ATR band. US Tech 100 at 1.42 ATR below its 20-day average had the cleanest structure and was published as CS-2026-0026: short from 29425, stop 29641, target 29100, closing at 19:55 UTC. We kept it intraday on purpose: Amazon reports after the bell, and a 0.44 ATR stop held across that release would be a bet on numbers, not on the chart. US 30 passed the band at +0.77 ATR but its 2R target needed 1.25 ATR against a 1.23 ATR reach, right under the 20-day high at 52928. Coca-Cola at +1.18 ATR sat 0.32 ATR below a 92.89-92.95 double top, so the target had no room.
The rest: eight stocks too far from their average (NVDA 1.70, TSLA 2.05, JPM 1.51, V 2.51, WMT 2.86, HD 3.20 ATR), US 500 and Microsoft inside the noise floor (0.26 and 0.49 ATR), Apple, Lilly, Caterpillar and Exxon blocked by earnings. This was the first idea in nine reviews: FOMC week and the earnings calendar explain most of the gap, but we are watching the streak.
Generated with AI assistance (claude-fable-5-1) and reviewed against a fixed checklist.