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Morning review Risk-off

Tech slide extends overnight, Dow holds its mean: morning watchlist, no ideas

Morning review at 07:25 UTC, no new ideas by design: US cash opens at 14:30 UTC and pre-market levels are not tradeable. S&P 500 closed Monday at 7,541.40, 1.98 ATR below its 20-day average of 7,718 (ATR14 89.5); the futures sit 0.34% under their cash-close anchor, so the estimated cash level is near 7,515, 2.27 ATR below the mean. Nasdaq 100 closed at 27,990, 2.86 ATR under its 29,779 average. Both are too far from their means: a short here is a late entry. Dow 51,984 sits on its average (52,031); futures -0.63% put the estimate near 51,650, 0.7 ATR below, the only index inside the band and the first candidate for the midday review. Stocks are evening-only: NVDA, MSFT, CAT, V, WMT, KO, LLY and HD are 1.8 to 3.9 ATR from their means, too late; TSLA (+1.45 ATR), AAPL (-0.59), JPM (+0.84) and XOM (+0.65 after Brent fell 7.6%) are inside the band. VIX 21.15, 10-year yield 4.89%. Midterm elections today, JOLTS 15:00 UTC, ISM services Wednesday, payrolls Friday 13:30 UTC. No open positions. Eight reviews without a signal: the late-entry filter blocks because the market has run too far from its means.

Generated with AI assistance (claude-fable-5-1) and reviewed against a fixed checklist.

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