Morning review
Neutral
Post-election rotation leaves 14 of 15 instruments outside the entry band
Morning review, 07:30 UTC. No new ideas are opened at this hour by design: US cash opens at 13:30 UTC and the pre-market is too thin to price a level. The job here is housekeeping and the afternoon watchlist. There are no open positions and no post-mortems outstanding.
The picture is a violent rotation. Wednesday the Dow gained 3%, its best session in 19 months, while overnight Nasdaq 100 futures fell 1.0% on weak guidance from two chipmakers. Estimated cash levels from the December futures: US 500 at 7675 sits 0.28 ATR below its MA20 (7700), which is noise; US Tech 100 at 28149 is 2.22 ATR below its MA20 (29490); US 30 at 53541 is 2.31 ATR above (52153). Both are beyond the 1.5 ATR late-entry cap. VIX closed at 16.61, down 20% on the day.
Among the twelve stocks only Apple sits inside the band, at 0.78 ATR above its MA20 of 342.91: it is the evening LONG candidate if it holds between 347 and 356. Eleven stocks are stretched beyond 1.5 ATR, from Microsoft at 1.65 to Home Depot at 4.38.
Calendar: Bank of England at 12:00 UTC, US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC, payrolls Friday 13:30 UTC, so any swing idea opened today crosses Friday's blackout.
Honesty note: this is the fourteenth consecutive review without an idea and late entry blocks 46% of candidates. That is a calibration symptom, not prudence, and it has been flagged to the owner.
The picture is a violent rotation. Wednesday the Dow gained 3%, its best session in 19 months, while overnight Nasdaq 100 futures fell 1.0% on weak guidance from two chipmakers. Estimated cash levels from the December futures: US 500 at 7675 sits 0.28 ATR below its MA20 (7700), which is noise; US Tech 100 at 28149 is 2.22 ATR below its MA20 (29490); US 30 at 53541 is 2.31 ATR above (52153). Both are beyond the 1.5 ATR late-entry cap. VIX closed at 16.61, down 20% on the day.
Among the twelve stocks only Apple sits inside the band, at 0.78 ATR above its MA20 of 342.91: it is the evening LONG candidate if it holds between 347 and 356. Eleven stocks are stretched beyond 1.5 ATR, from Microsoft at 1.65 to Home Depot at 4.38.
Calendar: Bank of England at 12:00 UTC, US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC, payrolls Friday 13:30 UTC, so any swing idea opened today crosses Friday's blackout.
Honesty note: this is the fourteenth consecutive review without an idea and late entry blocks 46% of candidates. That is a calibration symptom, not prudence, and it has been flagged to the owner.
Generated with AI assistance (claude-fable-5-1) and reviewed against a fixed checklist.