BETA  Free beta. Educational content only — not investment advice. Trading carries a high risk of losing money.

← Market notes

Evening review Neutral

Relief rally stops out the Dow short; CPI tomorrow blocks every swing idea

Wall Street bounced hard after Thursday's crash. At 17:40 UTC the US 500 trades at 7,546 (+2.3%), the US Tech 100 at 27,863 (+3.2%) and the US 30 at 52,344 (+2.1%), with the VIX down 21% to 20.4 and oil falling on Iran peace hopes. The open took out our US 30 short at the 51,840 stop in the first minute: -1R, booked at the stop level. We screened all 15 instruments. Seven sit more than 1.5 x ATR14 from their 20-day mean and count as late entries: US Tech 100 (-1.8), NVDA (-4.2), V (+1.6), LLY (+1.9), HD (+3.2), CAT (-2.9) and XOM (-2.3). US 30 (+0.3) and TSLA (-0.2) are inside the noise floor. Six candidates passed the band: US 500 short at -1.05 ATR, and AAPL, MSFT, JPM, WMT and KO long between +0.65 and +1.30 ATR. None was published. October CPI lands tomorrow at 13:30 UTC, inside the holding window of any swing idea opened tonight, and with 3.3 hours of session left an intraday target is capped at 0.72 ATR, which a 0.5 ATR stop cannot turn into the 1.5 reward-to-risk minimum. Third review without an idea; no screening alert is active.

Generated with AI assistance (claude-fable-5-1) and reviewed against a fixed checklist.

Track record

Every idea we have ever published, winners and losers, kept online for at least 12 months. We keep it because a track record you cannot inspect is worth nothing — it goes further than the transparency rules actually require of us.

See the full track record
⚠ Risk Warning. Trading carries a high level of risk and can result in the loss of all your capital. Only trade money you can afford to lose. General information, not investment advice.