Evening review
Risk-off
Hot October CPI rejects Monday's rebound: US 500 short published
October CPI came in at 0.4% headline and 0.3% core against 0.3% and 0.2% expected, and the market priced a higher chance of a rate hike. After Monday's 2.35% rebound the S&P 500 made a lower high at 7544 and fell to 7480 by 17:48 UTC, 1.44 daily ranges (ATR14 114.9 on cash bars) below its 20-day average at 7645. VIX 20.6, up 3.4%, below both the 25 level and the 15% jump that would block new ideas. We published one idea, CS-2026-0028: short US 500 at 7480, stop 7606 above the 9 November high, first target 7229 (2R), valid to 17 November. The main obstacle is the 5 November low at 7350, and Friday's PPI at 13:30 UTC sits inside the window. Discarded: US Tech 100 at 2.07 ATR below average and NVDA at 4.81 (late entry, and earnings on the 17th); US 30, TSLA, AAPL and MSFT inside the 0.5 ATR noise floor; WMT, KO, LLY, HD, CAT and XOM all beyond 1.5 ATR from their averages; JPM in band but its 2R target would need seven sessions; V in band but a long with higher carry and a target at the 442 resistance, dropped in favour of the index short.
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