Index trio diverges as September contracts expire; no trade qualifies

Two and a half hours before the US cash open the three indices are pulling apart. Estimated from the December futures against the 17 September cash closes, the S&P 500 sits at 7650.6, eight points from its 20-day average at 7658.4: 0.11 ATR14, noise rather than trend, so nothing to trade. The Nasdaq 100 at 29579.6 is the only one inside the band, 0.77 ATR above its 29280.8 average, but the short already open on the S&P occupies the US-index risk factor, and one idea per factor is not negotiable. The Dow at 51806.8 is 2.03 ATR below its average, far past the 1.5 late-entry limit. Two data checks mattered more than the charts today. September contracts expire this morning and the futures daily series still prints the old one: taking the day change from it would have put the S&P at 7718 and falsely stopped out the open short. And the 330.46 print on JPM after hours is a zero-volume tick between two 349.8 quotes, not a target touch. Both positions stay open. VIX at 15.29.