Tech-led rebound leaves the Dow 1.1 ATR under its average

The three US indices were priced at 11:00 UTC from the December futures applied to Monday's cash closes: US 500 at 7,773.87, US Tech 100 at 30,537.33, US 30 at 52,195.65. Two were discarded at once. US 500 sits 110.47 points above its 20-day average, 1.57 x ATR14 against a 1.50 ceiling: outside the band by seven hundredths of an ATR. US Tech 100 is 2.81 ATR above its own average, which at midday is not a trend to join but a move already made. US 30 is the mirror image, 1.10 ATR below an average of 52,749.64 and still inside the band, with the lower highs since 14 September intact. That became today's idea: a short targeting 51,780.00, wrong above 52,336.61. Single stocks cannot be priced reliably at this hour and wait for the evening review. Worth recording: the futures-to-cash basis stepped from roughly +0.09% to +0.85% between 18 and 21 September on all three contracts, which is the September roll, so every average and ATR here comes from cash history only. VIX 14.81. The open NVDA long and JPM short were checked and left open.