Dow short tested by firm futures; afternoon watchlist on defensives

Morning review, 06:30 UTC: by method no new ideas open at this hour, since US cash opens at 13:30 UTC and pre-market pricing is too thin. Index futures are mildly higher overnight: Dow futures +0.28%, S&P +0.15%, Nasdaq +0.18%, which puts the estimated Dow cash at 51,409 (basis steady at +0.62%, no roll). That is the issue for the open Dow short CS-2026-0013 (entry 51,241, stop 51,510): yesterday's regular session already printed 51,404.86, above the 51,382.88 structure high, yet below the stop, and the estimated price now sits about 0.62R against us. It stays open; stop hits are judged only on regular-session prints, and the idea expires at 20:00 UTC today. Context: the 10-year yield near 5.31% and a firmer dollar. Data today is light (trade balance 12:30 UTC); FOMC minutes arrive Wednesday at 18:00 UTC. Discarded on numbers: Nasdaq 100 2.84 ATR above its MA20, NVDA 2.73, HD 2.57 below (all late); AAPL, V, LLY and XOM inside the noise band. Evening watchlist: WMT and KO short (about 0.9-1.0 ATR below MA20), TSLA long (+1.05 ATR).