US 500 pullback long at 7752; Nasdaq and Dow too stretched

US index futures are lower this morning: the S&P 500 contract is down 0.53% from yesterday's cash close as oil and Treasury yields keep rising. Applying that change to the cash close gives an estimated S&P 500 of 7760, 1.08 ATR above its 20-day average (7688.4, ATR14 66.8). That is inside our 0.5-1.5 ATR band, so it is the one index we can work with. We published an intraday long at 7752, the retest of the 2 Oct high, with the stop at 7710.9 below the 5 Oct breakout base (7727.6) and the target at 7813.7. The idea closes by 20:00 UTC at the latest. We passed on the other two. The Nasdaq 100 is estimated 2.04 ATR above its average, too far to chase. The Dow is 1.92 ATR below its own average, an unusual split from the other two, but too extended for a short. Single stocks are reviewed only in the evening session. There is no CPI, PCE, payrolls, ISM or Fed decision before the close; September CPI is due 14 Oct.