Quiet overnight session: Dow short holds, Nasdaq too stretched to chase

The 06:30 UTC review opens no new ideas by design: US cash markets open at 13:30 UTC and pre-market pricing is too thin to build levels on. This slot reviews what is open and prepares the afternoon watchlist. The overnight session was calm: from the 20:00 UTC print, Dow futures are at -0.03%, S&P 500 futures at +0.20% and Nasdaq 100 futures at +0.57%. VIX closed at 15.4, well below the 25 limit. The futures/cash basis is steady (Dow 0.50-0.59% across three sessions), so there was no contract roll. The open US 30 short (CS-2026-0016) stays open. The estimated cash Dow is 51,217, below its 20-day average of 51,583, and the overnight high (51,618 on futures, about 51,315 in cash terms) never got near the 51,406 invalidation level. Mark-to-market is about -0.34R. On the watchlist, the S&P 500 sits 1.22 ATR above its 20-day average (7,781 vs 7,697), inside the operating band, so longs only. The Nasdaq 100 is 1.67 ATR above (30,900 vs 30,238), past the 1.5 late-entry limit, so it is ruled out. There is no CPI, PCE, payrolls, ISM or Fed event today, and CPI is due mid-month.