Dow futures firm, Nasdaq lags: no new idea before the open

Two and a half hours before the US cash open the rotation seen overnight is still there: Dow futures +0.14% since yesterday's cash close, S&P 500 futures -0.10%, Nasdaq 100 futures -0.56%. Applying those moves to the cash closes gives estimates of 51,925 for US 30, 7,800 for US 500 and 30,493 for US Tech 100. The futures/cash basis is steady (0.49%, 0.63%, 0.75%), so no contract roll distorts the read. VIX is at 15.5.

No new idea this midday. US Tech 100 is only 0.30 ATR from its 20-day average (30,391), which is noise, not trend. US 500 sits 1.36 ATR above its average: the cleanest long would buy 7,797 with a stop at 7,763.5, but the 6 October high at 7,844.5 stands in front of the target and caps the ratio at 1.42, below the 1.5 minimum. US 30 passes the band (0.91 ATR) but we already hold a long there.

Open idea CS-2026-0017 (US 30 long from 51,866) is about +0.2R on the estimate; it closes at today's cash close, before tomorrow's CPI at 12:30 UTC. Bank earnings arrive this morning in New York.