Quiet futures, Tesla short holds, Dow and Nasdaq diverge on watchlist

Morning review at 06:37 UTC: no new ideas by design, US cash markets open in about seven hours and pre-market is too thin to anchor levels. Index futures barely moved overnight versus the 20:00 UTC cash close: ES +0.04%, NQ +0.02%, YM +0.06%. Applied to cash closes, that gives estimates of 7,747 for the US 500, 29,942 for the US Tech 100 and 52,208 for the US 30. Against MA20 and ATR14 computed on cash daily bars, the US 500 sits only 0.13 ATR above its MA20, which is noise. The US Tech 100 is 1.55 ATR below, just past the 1.5 late-entry limit. The US 30 is 1.39 ATR above, inside the band, so it is the index to watch this evening, long only. The open Tesla short (entry 359.75, stop 366.56, target 346.13) is intact: yesterday's close was 362.44, last after-hours print 362.27, and we found no overnight news that changes the thesis. VIX is 16.46. Today's US data, import prices at 12:30 UTC and industrial production at 13:15 UTC, are not on the method's blocking list.