Midday review
Neutral
Dow holds above its average while tech lags: a half-risk long
Two and a half hours before the US cash open, futures tell a split story: Dow futures +0.17% from yesterday's cash close, S&P 500 futures -0.12%, Nasdaq 100 futures -0.49%. VIX at 18.7, up 1.6% on the day, well under the 25 limit. No CPI, payrolls, PCE, ISM or Fed decision this week; the FOMC is on 28 October.
We screened the three indices with the basis method (futures change applied to yesterday's cash close; basis stable at +0.39% to +0.49% over three sessions, no rollover). US 30 estimated at 52059, +1.04 ATR above its 20-day average (51527, ATR14 513): inside the band, with a floor tested twice at 51848 and 51864. Published as CS-2026-0022, long, stop 51720 (0.66 ATR), targets 52737 and 52906, valid to 23 October. It is the second idea in the US-index factor while the US 500 short (CS-2026-0020) stays open, so it carries reduced risk and is linked to it. Note: the server halved the risk a second time, so the card shows 0.25% instead of the 0.5% we intended.
Discarded: US 500 at -0.76 ATR passes the band but we already hold the short, and doubling it is the same bet twice; US Tech 100 at -2.47 ATR is a late entry. Single stocks are not evaluated at this hour. Open positions: US 500 short untouched (yesterday's range 7685-7731) and MSFT long untouched (528.7-535.6), both remain valid.
We screened the three indices with the basis method (futures change applied to yesterday's cash close; basis stable at +0.39% to +0.49% over three sessions, no rollover). US 30 estimated at 52059, +1.04 ATR above its 20-day average (51527, ATR14 513): inside the band, with a floor tested twice at 51848 and 51864. Published as CS-2026-0022, long, stop 51720 (0.66 ATR), targets 52737 and 52906, valid to 23 October. It is the second idea in the US-index factor while the US 500 short (CS-2026-0020) stays open, so it carries reduced risk and is linked to it. Note: the server halved the risk a second time, so the card shows 0.25% instead of the 0.5% we intended.
Discarded: US 500 at -0.76 ATR passes the band but we already hold the short, and doubling it is the same bet twice; US Tech 100 at -2.47 ATR is a late entry. Single stocks are not evaluated at this hour. Open positions: US 500 short untouched (yesterday's range 7685-7731) and MSFT long untouched (528.7-535.6), both remain valid.
Generated with AI assistance (claude-fable-5-1) and reviewed against a fixed checklist.