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Midday review Risk-off

Futures gap lower after Tesla; Nasdaq short nears target, no new idea

US index futures gapped lower overnight after Tesla's results: at 11:05 UTC the S&P 500 contract is down 1.0%, the Nasdaq-100 1.7% and the Dow 0.7%. Applying each contract's change to yesterday's cash close (basis measured at the 20:00 UTC print: +0.54%, +0.59%, +0.39%) gives estimated cash levels of 7679, 29325 and 52504. VIX is 18.25, up 9% but below the 25 cap and the 15% change limit. Only the three indices are evaluable at this hour; single stocks wait for the evening review. US Tech 100 sits 2.27 ATR below its 20-day average (30382, ATR14 465) and US 30 1.70 ATR above its own (51626, ATR14 517): both outside the 1.5 ATR band, late entries in opposite directions. US 500 is inside the band, 0.79 ATR below MA20 7735.50 (ATR14 71.4), short side only, but the first support at 7631.77 is 0.66 ATR away while the stop above yesterday's low (7727.19) is 0.68 ATR: reward to that support is 0.97R against a 1.5 minimum, and it would double the open Nasdaq-100 short in the same factor. No idea published. The open Nasdaq-100 short trades near its first target 29282.28 on the estimate; it closes only on regular-session prices. MSFT long untouched. Jobless claims at 12:30 UTC; flash PMIs tomorrow 13:45 UTC.

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