Rationale
US 500 has printed lower highs since 3 September (7756.76, then 7677.02, 7647.99, 7617.26 and 7626.79 yesterday) and trades below its 20-day average at 7661.94. The estimated cash price is 7616.23, derived from the reference future at 7688.00 by applying the same-contract day change of +0.85%: the rebound after the Fed is carrying price back up into that lower-high zone rather than out of it, 0.70 ATR below the average and inside the band. ATR14 is 65.38 points measured on the cash session; the stop at 7678.30 sits a quarter of an ATR above the average and the first target at 7490.00 just under yesterday's 7507.77 low, about 2.0 times the risk. The idea is wrong if the index reclaims and holds 7661.94, which would break the sequence of lower highs; held a few nights the carry on the short side is worth roughly 1-2% of the risk and execution about 0.5%, but the day of the multiple charge depends on each reader's own provider and should be checked there.
Invalidation
Recupero e tenuta sopra 7661,94, la media a 20 giorni delle chiusure (barra viva esclusa). Sopra quel livello la serie di massimi decrescenti aperta il 3 settembre è rotta e l'impostazione ribassista non regge più. Lo stop a 7678,30 è quel livello più 0,25 x ATR14 di margine di rumore (ATR14 = 65,38 punti sulla sessione cash).
Published: Sep 17, 2026 13:16 CEST · Midday review · Swing · Closed: Sep 21, 2026 13:15 CEST (Stop loss hit) · Generated with AI assistance (claude-opus-5) and reviewed against a fixed checklist.
Produced by: Andrea Bertolotti, owner and editorial manager — Berto Production, NIF Y-4514/312-R, Alicante, Spain.
Prices: market price at the time of dissemination 7,616.23000, taken on Sep 17, 2026 13:04 CEST.
Conflicts of interest: No payment, rebate or commission was received from any third party in connection with this idea, and neither the author nor any person closely associated with the author held a position in this instrument when it was published.
Update frequency: A published idea is never revised. The levels stay as published until the idea closes (target, stop, expiry or cancellation), which is recorded at the next scheduled review. We issue no interim updates and no corrections to levels.
Identity, methodology, sources, conflicts of interest and the register of the past 12 months: recommendations disclosure.