Rationale
JPMorgan trades at 350.09 (16:42 UTC), 4.87 below its 20-day average of 354.96, or 0.72 ATR with ATR14 at 6.78 points computed on regular-session daily bars through 16 September with the live bar excluded. The sequence of lower highs is intact - 362.85 on 3 September, 360.05 on 11 September, 355.60 on 16 September, 353.49 today - while the day after the Fed's 25bp hike to 3.75-4.00% the S&P 500 is up 1.1% and the VIX is down 9.3% to 15.60, yet the most rate-sensitive name in the basket adds only 0.33%: that divergence, not the chart alone, is why now. The stop sits at 357.30, the 16 September high of 355.60 plus 0.25 ATR of noise margin, and the target at 335.00 falls into the early-July congestion around 335.64, a reward-to-risk of 2.09 over 2.23 ATR of travel, with the floor at 343.07-345.28 tested three times in the way. This is a multi-day idea on a single share, so an overnight announcement can open the price beyond the stop and the loss can exceed 1R; holding the short side for five nights costs a small single-digit fraction of the risk, but execution is not negligible - a 0.10% round-trip eats about 5% of the risk and 0.50% about 24%, so measure it on your own account.
Invalidation
Recupero e tenuta sopra 355,60, massimo del 16/09/2026 e livello che sta sopra la media a 20 giorni delle chiusure (354,96, barra viva esclusa). Sopra quel livello la serie di massimi decrescenti aperta il 3 settembre è rotta e la debolezza relativa del titolo rispetto all'indice non regge più. Lo stop a 357,30 è quel livello più 0,25 x ATR14 di margine di rumore (ATR14 = 6,78 punti, sola seduta regolare).
Published: Sep 17, 2026 18:44 CEST · Evening review · Swing · Closed: Sep 22, 2026 18:38 CEST (Expired) · Generated with AI assistance (claude-opus-5) and reviewed against a fixed checklist.
Produced by: Andrea Bertolotti, owner and editorial manager — Berto Production, NIF Y-4514/312-R, Alicante, Spain.
Prices: market price at the time of dissemination 350.09000, taken on Sep 17, 2026 18:42 CEST.
Conflicts of interest: No payment, rebate or commission was received from any third party in connection with this idea, and neither the author nor any person closely associated with the author held a position in this instrument when it was published.
Update frequency: A published idea is never revised. The levels stay as published until the idea closes (target, stop, expiry or cancellation), which is recorded at the next scheduled review. We issue no interim updates and no corrections to levels.
Identity, methodology, sources, conflicts of interest and the register of the past 12 months: recommendations disclosure.