Rationale
NVIDIA has printed five consecutive higher lows since 14 September (208.93, 211.16, 212.50, 217.15, 218.03, 221.56) and trades back above its 20-day average of 218.88, currently 1.14 ATR14 above it at 225.77. Rather than chase that, the idea waits for a limit entry at 222.50 on the 222.27-222.93 shelf: that keeps the stop at 216.41, just below the last higher low at 218.03 plus a quarter-ATR of noise margin, a distance of 0.94 ATR14, and places the 2R target at 234.68, back inside the 4-8 September congestion and below the 52-week high of 236.54. The idea is wrong on a daily close under 218.03, because at that point the sequence of higher lows is broken and there is no reason to stay long. Held overnight the long side costs roughly 3% of the risk over three to four nights, one weekday is charged at a multiple that depends on the reader's own provider, dealing costs should be measured the same way (a 0.25% per-side charge would be about 18% of the risk), and on a single share an overnight announcement can open the price beyond the stop, so the loss can exceed 1R.
Invalidation
Chiusura giornaliera sotto 218,03, minimo del 18/09/2026 e ultimo minimo crescente della serie aperta il 14/09 (208,93 - 211,16 - 212,50 - 217,15 - 218,03 - 221,56). Sotto quel livello la sequenza di minimi crescenti è rotta e il recupero sopra la media a 20 giorni delle chiusure (218,88, barra viva esclusa) non regge più. Lo stop a 216,41 è quel livello meno 0,25 x ATR14 di margine di rumore (ATR14 = 6,479 punti).
Published: Sep 21, 2026 18:42 CEST · Evening review · Swing · Closed: Sep 25, 2026 18:37 CEST (Expired) · Generated with AI assistance (claude-opus-5) and reviewed against a fixed checklist.
Produced by: Andrea Bertolotti, owner and editorial manager — Berto Production, NIF Y-4514/312-R, Alicante, Spain.
Prices: market price at the time of dissemination 225.77000, taken on Sep 21, 2026 18:40 CEST.
Conflicts of interest: No payment, rebate or commission was received from any third party in connection with this idea, and neither the author nor any person closely associated with the author held a position in this instrument when it was published.
Update frequency: A published idea is never revised. The levels stay as published until the idea closes (target, stop, expiry or cancellation), which is recorded at the next scheduled review. We issue no interim updates and no corrections to levels.
Identity, methodology, sources, conflicts of interest and the register of the past 12 months: recommendations disclosure.