Rationale
JPMorgan broke the 343-345 support shelf on 22/09 and has since printed lows at 336.98 and 335.28; today it is bouncing back into that shelf at 342.54 while it still sits 1.29 ATR under its 20-day average of 351.82, extending a sequence of lower highs that runs from 362.86 on 4 September down to today's 343.00. The idea is a short on the retest, with the stop at 347.11 above the old support at 345.27 and a first target at 333.40 (2R), beyond the 335.28 low: the idea is wrong if the price trades back above 345.27, because then the breakdown has failed. It closes by 19:45 UTC on Tuesday 29/09, before PCE on 30/09. It is held over a weekend on a single stock, so a gap can take the loss beyond 1R; estimated short carry over four nights is roughly 3% of R (the long side would cost about three times more), dealing costs should be measured on your own account as a fraction of R, and the day charged at a multiple depends on your provider.
Invalidation
A trade above 345.27, the 17/09/2026 low and top of the 343.07-345.27 support shelf that broke on 22/09 and now acts as resistance. Above it the breakdown has failed and the lower-high sequence (362.86 - 360.05 - 355.60 - 354.50 - 352.10 - 343.00) is no longer intact. Stop 347.11 = 345.27 + 0.25 x ATR14 noise margin (ATR14 = 7.362, 0.62 ATR from entry). Single series: JPM regular-session daily bars from Yahoo (raw prices, not adjusted) for price, MA20 (351.82, live bar excluded), ATR14 and levels.
Published: Sep 25, 2026 18:38 CEST · Evening review · Swing · Closed: Sep 29, 2026 18:37 CEST (Target 1 hit) · Generated with AI assistance (claude-opus-5) and reviewed against a fixed checklist.
Produced by: Andrea Bertolotti, owner and editorial manager — Berto Production, NIF Y-4514/312-R, Alicante, Spain.
Prices: market price at the time of dissemination 342.54000, taken on Sep 25, 2026 18:36 CEST.
Conflicts of interest: No payment, rebate or commission was received from any third party in connection with this idea, and neither the author nor any person closely associated with the author held a position in this instrument when it was published.
Update frequency: A published idea is never revised. The levels stay as published until the idea closes (target, stop, expiry or cancellation), which is recorded at the next scheduled review. We issue no interim updates and no corrections to levels.
Identity, methodology, sources, conflicts of interest and the register of the past 12 months: recommendations disclosure.