Rationale
US Tech 100 cash has fallen in a clean staircase today, from 30437 to 30030, breaking the late-September lows at 30204 and 30081, and sits 1.30 ATR below its 20-day average (30472). The next area is the 21 September gap down to 29650-29500, so tp1 is 29512 (2.0R) and the idea fails on a return above 30204, with a stop at 30289 (0.76 ATR). It is a swing idea held at least four nights: the short-side overnight charge is small, roughly 0.5% of R per night, around 2% of R to expiry, and whether one night is charged multiple times depends on the reader's own provider. The entry is already late in the band (1.30 out of 1.50 ATR), so a sharp rebound toward the average is the main risk.
Invalidation
A cash-session move back above 30204 (24 Sep daily low, broken today and now resistance, just over the 30180 intraday lower high) negates the breakdown; stop = 30204 + 0.25 x ATR14 noise margin = 30289.
Published: Oct 14, 2026 18:37 CEST · Evening review · Swing · Closed: Oct 15, 2026 18:37 CEST (Target 1 hit) · Generated with AI assistance (claude-opus-5) and reviewed against a fixed checklist.
Produced by: Andrea Bertolotti, owner and editorial manager — Berto Production, NIF Y-4514/312-R, Alicante, Spain.
Prices: market price at the time of dissemination 30,030.66000, taken on Oct 14, 2026 18:36 CEST.
Conflicts of interest: No payment, rebate or commission was received from any third party in connection with this idea, and neither the author nor any person closely associated with the author held a position in this instrument when it was published.
Update frequency: A published idea is never revised. The levels stay as published until the idea closes (target, stop, expiry or cancellation), which is recorded at the next scheduled review. We issue no interim updates and no corrections to levels.
Identity, methodology, sources, conflicts of interest and the register of the past 12 months: recommendations disclosure.