Rationale
Microsoft has climbed from about 490 to 551.15 in a month and the 16 Oct pullback stopped at 524.43, a higher low; today it is back at 533.15, 1.11 ATR above the 20-day average (520.22). The idea targets 556.45 (2R), which means clearing the 551.15 and 553.72 highs: that overhead resistance is the main weakness and a stall there is quite possible. A daily close below 524.43 (stop 521.50) would mean the advance has broken. This is a single stock held overnight: an overnight gap can produce a loss larger than 1R, and holding the long side for four nights costs roughly 4% of R, to be checked against your own conditions.
Invalidation
A daily move below 524.43 (the 16 Oct low, the higher low of the advance from 490 in mid-September) breaks the sequence of higher lows; stop = 524.43 - 0.25 x ATR14 (2.94) = 521.50, i.e. 0.99 x ATR14 from entry. Single price series: MSFT regular-session daily bars (Yahoo), live bar excluded; MA20 520.22, ATR14 11.74 (simple 14-day mean of true range).
Published: Oct 19, 2026 18:38 CEST · Evening review · Swing · Closed: Oct 23, 2026 08:37 CEST (Stop loss hit) · Generated with AI assistance (claude-opus-5) and reviewed against a fixed checklist.
Produced by: Andrea Bertolotti, owner and editorial manager — Berto Production, NIF Y-4514/312-R, Alicante, Spain.
Prices: market price at the time of dissemination 533.15000, taken on Oct 19, 2026 18:37 CEST.
Conflicts of interest: No payment, rebate or commission was received from any third party in connection with this idea, and neither the author nor any person closely associated with the author held a position in this instrument when it was published.
Update frequency: A published idea is never revised. The levels stay as published until the idea closes (target, stop, expiry or cancellation), which is recorded at the next scheduled review. We issue no interim updates and no corrections to levels.
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