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Morning review Risk-off

Microsoft long stopped out as technology slides; watchlist for the afternoon

The Microsoft long (CS-2026-0021) is closed at the stop, 521.50, for -1R: the stock traded through it at 18:58 UTC yesterday in the regular session, no gap, while the US Tech 100 lost 2.90% and the S&P 500 1.22%. The Dow closed flat and defensives kept climbing, so this is rotation out of technology more than a general exit from risk, but the VIX jumped 12.3% to 19.03. Both volatility filters still pass (below 25, below +15%). At 06:35 UTC futures are quiet: S&P 500 7,703 (flat), Nasdaq 100 29,220 (+0.3%), Dow 52,923 (-0.3%); the 10-year yield is 4.98%, the dollar index 101.7. No idea opens in this slot: US cash starts at 13:30 UTC and pre-market spreads distort every level. On yesterday's closes only the US 500 sits inside the band (0.95 ATR below its 20-day average of 7,733). US Tech 100, NVDA and CAT are 2.3 to 2.7 ATR below their averages; WMT, KO, HD, V and LLY are 2.7 to 4.4 ATR above: too late either way. Earnings rule out V and KO (27 Oct) and MSFT (28 Oct). Calendar: flash PMIs 13:45 UTC, Michigan sentiment 14:00 UTC, neither a blocking event. Fifth review without a signal. Yahoo was rate-limited this morning, so levels come from Nasdaq, Cboe and delayed futures prints, closes verified.

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