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Midday review Risk-off

S&P 500 sits on support after tech rout: no entry before the open

Thursday was the worst session since July for the S&P 500 (-1.2%) and since June for the Nasdaq 100 (-2.9%), while the Dow closed flat. Overnight the futures drifted lower again: at 10:57 UTC the S&P 500 contract was 0.33% below its print at yesterday's cash close, which puts the estimated cash index near 7,638, with the Nasdaq 100 near 28,915 and the Dow near 52,519. VIX at 19.8, up 4% on the day: below both blocks. No position is open after the Microsoft long was stopped this morning. Nothing passed today. US 500 is 1.30 ATR below its MA20 (7,733; ATR14 73.6 points), so the band and the trend filter allow a short, but the price sits 0.08 ATR above the double support at 7,632-7,637 and the first clean invalidation, Thursday's high at 7,703 plus a noise margin, implies a stop of 1.13 ATR: too wide for an intraday target and, as a swing, it would need six sessions and cross the FOMC on 28 October. US Tech 100 is 2.80 ATR below its MA20 and US 30 1.59 ATR above it: both late entries. Single stocks are not assessed at this hour. Flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC, Michigan sentiment at 14:00 UTC. Sixth consecutive review without an idea; the counter is being watched.

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