Futures firmer before the Fed; Dow in band, S&P short still open

Midday review at 11:05 UTC. Index futures are firmer ahead of tomorrow's Fed decision (18:00 UTC): the S&P future trades at 7733.5, up 0.25% on the day, which maps to an estimated cash level of 7695.7 against yesterday's close of 7676.77. Nasdaq-100 future +0.44%, Dow future +0.30%. VIX 17.9 from 18.39, ten-year yield 4.99%, dollar index 102.2. Consumer confidence lands at 14:00 UTC.

Open idea CS-2026-0025, S&P 500 short from 7684, was filled yesterday between 17:05 and 17:10 UTC and stays open: the post-fill cash high was 7690.95 and today's estimated high 7705, both below the 7721.5 stop. It is about 0.3R underwater and expires at 20:00 UTC, before the Fed window.

No new idea. The S&P 500 is 0.43 ATR14 below its MA20 at 7727, inside the 0.5 noise floor. The Nasdaq-100 is 1.51 ATR below its MA20 at 30173, just past the 1.5 late-entry limit. The Dow is the only index in band, 1.41 ATR above its MA20 at 51765, but the only clean invalidation, yesterday's low at 52263, forces a 0.73 ATR stop whose 1.5R target sits 1.09 ATR away, beyond the intraday reach and right under the 52860-52928 highs. A swing version would cross the FOMC. Single stocks are not evaluated at this slot.