S&P short stopped by pre-Fed rally; nothing new before the decision

The pre-Fed drift did its work. The S&P 500 gapped up to 7,699 and ran to 7,736, back through the 7,668-7,703 shelf it broke last week, and our short CS-2026-0025 was stopped at 7,721.50 on the 15:15 UTC bar for -1R. At 16:46 UTC the index trades at 7,720, only 0.10 ATR from its 20-day average at 7,727: that is noise, not a trend, so no new US 500 idea. The Nasdaq 100 is 1.07 ATR below its average but up 1.2%, filling the 22 October gap; selling a same-day failed breakdown three hours before the close is a bet we chose not to publish. The Dow sits 1.10 ATR above its average, but the FOMC statement at 18:00 UTC tomorrow falls inside any swing horizon. Among stocks, TSLA, WMT and HD are 2.5-2.6 ATR extended, JPM is 0.40 ATR from its average, AAPL has no invalidation inside intraday reach, NVDA is bouncing off 210, and six names report earnings within three sessions. VIX 17.55, ten-year yield 5.0%, dollar firmer. Fifteen screened, fifteen blocked, no open positions into the decision.