Four short setups passed the filters, Wednesday's FOMC dot plot blocked them

Snapshot at 16:35 UTC. The trend filter leaves only the short side open: S&P 500 cash 7633.42 against a 7685.19 MA20 (-0.67%), Nasdaq 100 29176.20 against 29405.88 (-0.78%), EUR/USD 1.1554 against 1.1628 (-0.64%), GBP/USD 1.3494 against 1.3565 (-0.52%). Those four cleared trend, the 1.20% stop cap and the VIX filter (16.70, +5.4%).

Three were discarded earlier. Germany 40 at 25440.81 (-2.32% from MA20), USD/JPY at 154.43 (-2.18%) and gold at 4345.70 (-2.74%) all sit beyond the 1.5% late-entry limit. Gold fails twice, because 0.8 x ATR14 is 1.24% and breaches the 1.20% stop cap.

Nothing published. The FOMC meets 15-16 September and the decision carries a Summary of Economic Projections, with a first hike since 2023 widely expected. Every survivor is USD- and risk-sensitive, so a swing short opened tonight would be settled by Wednesday's statement rather than by its invalidation level. With about three hours of cash session left, no intraday version reaches a target 1.2% away. Volatility has already expanded today on the chip selloff, oil above 108 dollars and 10-year yields at 5%: the worst context for a fresh entry, not the best.