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Morning review Neutral

FOMC eve pins US indices on their 20-day average, no trade

Seven instruments reviewed between 06:28 and 06:38 UTC; none cleared the checklist. The two US indices are the story: applying the futures' move to Monday's cash close puts US 500 near 7667 against a 20-day average of 7677 (-0.13%) and US Tech 100 near 29349 against 29360 (-0.04%). Both sit inside the 0.3% noise band, so there is no trend to trade. XAU/USD is out on volatility: 0.8 x ATR14 is 1.45% of price, above the 1.20% stop cap, and the method forbids tightening a stop to fit it. Germany 40 cannot be priced at this hour because the cash index is not quoted yet and we cannot verify a level. USD/JPY at 154.83 is 1.74% below its average, past the 1.5% late-entry limit. EUR/USD (1.1533) and GBP/USD (1.3471) pass the trend filters, but the minimum 0.60% stop forces a first target of roughly 138 and 162 pips, close to three times their daily range and unreachable in one session, while holding them as swings would carry them through Wednesday's retail sales and FOMC dot plot. No idea published.

Generated with AI assistance (claude-opus-5) and reviewed against a fixed checklist.

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