Morning review
Neutral
Fed day: flat book, futures quiet, watchlist narrowed to Nasdaq and Dow
No open positions this morning after yesterday's S&P short was stopped at -1R, and no post-mortems outstanding. Overnight the futures barely moved: the S&P contract sits at 7758.75 against a 7756.75 print at the cash close, the Nasdaq contract is up 0.46% at 29939, the Dow contract down 0.29% at 52420. VIX closed at 17.52, down 4.7%, the 10-year yield is at 4.99% and the dollar index at 102.4. The day is defined by the FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC with the press conference at 18:30: a hold at 3.75-4.00% is priced, December is the real question. Our macro blackout runs from 14:00 to 18:30 UTC, which covers most of the cash session, so no idea can be opened before the decision. Screening on clean daily bars: S&P 500 is 0.07 ATR from its MA20 and JPM 0.35 ATR, both noise. TSLA, V, WMT, HD are stretched 1.75-2.41 ATR above the average, CAT 2.10 ATR below: late entries. MSFT reports tonight, LLY and CAT tomorrow, XOM on Thursday: earnings filter. What survives the structure test and goes on this afternoon's watchlist: US Tech 100 at 0.68 ATR below its MA20 (short side), US 30 at 0.80 ATR above (long side), NVDA at 1.05 ATR below, AAPL and KO. The screening counter now reads five reviews without a signal, after two signals in the previous week, so this is a calendar effect rather than a stalled method.
Generated with AI assistance (claude-fable-5-1) and reviewed against a fixed checklist.