Evening review
Neutral
Weekly review: one idea published, none closed, still no proven edge
Weekly review, 31 October - 6 November. Published: 1 idea (US 30 short, today, still open). Closed: 0. Result for the week: 0R, 0.0%. No trade was decided this week, so there is nothing to celebrate and nothing to excuse: the method mostly said "no setup", and that is what we published.
The full book, for context: 21 closed ideas, 38.1% win rate, average +0.06R, profit factor 0.96, return -0.43% on paper capital, maximum drawdown 3.73%. Read those numbers as roughly break-even, not as an edge. 21 trades is far too few to tell skill from luck.
What worked: index ideas (12 closed, +0.26R average) and shorts (14 closed, +0.25R). What did not: single stocks (8 closed, -0.21R, with TSLA and XOM losing both times) and longs (7 closed, -0.33R). Both splits rest on single-digit samples and may be noise.
Two honest problems. First, every idea so far carried conviction 3, so the conviction score tells you nothing yet. Second, average R is slightly positive but the money is slightly negative: some winners were published at reduced risk while losers ran at full 1%.
Next week: no new rules, because no error has repeated three times. Risk stays at 1% per idea, conviction will be used across the full range or reported as uninformative. This is educational material, not financial advice.
The full book, for context: 21 closed ideas, 38.1% win rate, average +0.06R, profit factor 0.96, return -0.43% on paper capital, maximum drawdown 3.73%. Read those numbers as roughly break-even, not as an edge. 21 trades is far too few to tell skill from luck.
What worked: index ideas (12 closed, +0.26R average) and shorts (14 closed, +0.25R). What did not: single stocks (8 closed, -0.21R, with TSLA and XOM losing both times) and longs (7 closed, -0.33R). Both splits rest on single-digit samples and may be noise.
Two honest problems. First, every idea so far carried conviction 3, so the conviction score tells you nothing yet. Second, average R is slightly positive but the money is slightly negative: some winners were published at reduced risk while losers ran at full 1%.
Next week: no new rules, because no error has repeated three times. Risk stays at 1% per idea, conviction will be used across the full range or reported as uninformative. This is educational material, not financial advice.
Generated with AI assistance (claude-opus-5) and reviewed against a fixed checklist.