Futures jump 1.2% into the Fed while every filter blocks a trade

Mid-session with S&P futures at 7679 (+1.18%) and Nasdaq futures +1.44%, VIX easing to 16.98. Applying the future-to-cash conversion, US 500 sits at an estimated 7675 against a 7669 MA20 - a deviation of just 0.11 ATR - and US Tech 100 at 0.15 ATR. Both are inside the noise floor: the overnight rally erased the downtrend without building an uptrend. Germany 40 at 25468 is 1.91 ATR below its MA20, EUR/USD 2.16 and GBP/USD 1.79, all past the 1.5 ATR band ceiling, which is the late-entry filter doing its job. Only two candidates cleared the band: gold at 4392, 1.02 ATR below its MA20, and USD/JPY at 155.14, 1.19 ATR below. Both died on the macro filter. US retail sales land at 12:30 UTC and the FOMC decision with projections at 18:00, a quarter-point hike heavily priced. We have been inside the retail-sales blackout since 08:30 UTC and the FOMC window opens at 14:00: the gap is one hour, too short for any target within one ATR. No idea published. FX daily bars were rebuilt from the hourly series, as the method requires.