Retail sales and a near-priced Fed hike freeze every watchlist instrument

No trade this morning, and the reason is the calendar rather than the charts. US retail sales land at 12:30 UTC and the FOMC decision, with fresh projections and the dot plot, at 18:00 UTC. CME pricing puts a 25bp hike near 92%, with ten-year yields at their highest since 2007. Every watchlist instrument is quoted in dollars or against the dollar, so the heavy-data filter disqualifies all of them before the trend filter is even reached. GBP/USD and USD/JPY carry a second layer: the Bank of England decides on 17 September and the Bank of Japan on 17-18, both inside any swing horizon. Germany 40 is out at this review anyway, because the cash index is not quoted before 09:00 CET and we will not publish a price we cannot verify. Levels read at 06:40 UTC: S&P future 7,672 (cash estimated 7,636 off Monday's 7,619.98 close), Nasdaq future 29,344, gold 4,367.9, EUR/USD 1.1551, GBP/USD 1.3479, USD/JPY 155.06. VIX at 17.20 passes both volatility filters: the block is the calendar alone.