Contract roll masks the real move: US 500 short below 7661.94

Midday review, prices taken at 11:04 UTC. The S&P reference is up 0.85% inside the current contract, not the 1.74% the daily series shows: the contract rolled overnight, and the same step appears on the Nasdaq and Dow references (1.01 and 0.79 points of base). It matters, because the naive figure would have put estimated cash at 7683, above the 20-day average at 7661.94, and flipped the direction filter from short to long. On the clean number US 500 is at an estimated 7616.23, 0.70 ATR below that average and inside the band, so we published a swing short with invalidation at the average itself and the first target at 7490.00. US Tech 100 was discarded at 0.02 ATR from its average: that is noise, not trend. US 30 at 2.07 ATR, well past the 1.5 ceiling, is a late entry. The twelve single stocks cannot be priced at this hour, since the US cash market opens at 13:30 UTC. VIX 15.94, down 9.8%. This morning's gold short has not triggered: the high since publication is 4374.40 against an entry at 4390.