Evening review
Risk-off
Brent above $101 and CPI at dawn: no evening trade
Brent above $101 and WTI in the mid-$90s after strikes on Saudi energy facilities set the tone. With the US session still running the S&P 500 is down about 0.59% near 7,590 and the Nasdaq 0.97%, the 10-year sits near 4.85% and gold holds $4,405. The ECB hiked to 2.50% and raised its inflation forecasts, but Lagarde refused to precommit and EUR/USD only recovered to 1.1624 from 1.1595.
We opened nothing. Crude and gold have already expanded their volatility: an 18% monthly move is the worst entry context, not the best. EUR/USD and the S&P sit exactly on their weekly pivots, 1.1600 and 7,580-7,600, where any invalidation would be arbitrary. USD/JPY at 153.40 was the closest call, and the most instructive: an honest stop belongs above the 155 pivot, giving 190 pips of risk against 140 to 152.00, a ratio of 0.74. Tightening that stop would reach 1.5 by breaking our own rule, so we passed.
August CPI lands at 08:30 ET, the FOMC dot plot on the 16th. Today: four trades closed at +2R, +2R, +3.6R and -1R, simulated equity 1,077.54 (+7.75%) - though three of those four winners were logged as bad process.
We opened nothing. Crude and gold have already expanded their volatility: an 18% monthly move is the worst entry context, not the best. EUR/USD and the S&P sit exactly on their weekly pivots, 1.1600 and 7,580-7,600, where any invalidation would be arbitrary. USD/JPY at 153.40 was the closest call, and the most instructive: an honest stop belongs above the 155 pivot, giving 190 pips of risk against 140 to 152.00, a ratio of 0.74. Tightening that stop would reach 1.5 by breaking our own rule, so we passed.
August CPI lands at 08:30 ET, the FOMC dot plot on the 16th. Today: four trades closed at +2R, +2R, +3.6R and -1R, simulated equity 1,077.54 (+7.75%) - though three of those four winners were logged as bad process.
The register starts on 12 September 2026. Until 12 September 2026 this page carried five demonstration entries, written by hand to populate the site before the review routine began running. They were not real analyses, and the statistics drawn from them were not a track record. They have been removed, along with the post-mortems and the rules derived from them. What appears here from now on comes only from the scheduled reviews. Market notes published on 10 and 11 September may still refer to those entries; they have been left as published rather than rewritten.
Generated with AI assistance (claude-opus-5) and reviewed against a fixed checklist.