Evening review
Risk-off
Brent above $101 and CPI at dawn: no evening trade
Brent above $101 and WTI in the mid-$90s after strikes on Saudi energy facilities set the tone. With the US session still running the S&P 500 is down about 0.59% near 7,590 and the Nasdaq 0.97%, the 10-year sits near 4.85% and gold holds $4,405. The ECB hiked to 2.50% and raised its inflation forecasts, but Lagarde refused to precommit and EUR/USD only recovered to 1.1624 from 1.1595.
We opened nothing. Crude and gold have already expanded their volatility: an 18% monthly move is the worst entry context, not the best. EUR/USD and the S&P sit exactly on their weekly pivots, 1.1600 and 7,580-7,600, where any invalidation would be arbitrary. USD/JPY at 153.40 was the closest call, and the most instructive: an honest stop belongs above the 155 pivot, giving 190 pips of risk against 140 to 152.00, a ratio of 0.74. Tightening that stop would reach 1.5 by breaking our own rule, so we passed.
August CPI lands at 08:30 ET, the FOMC dot plot on the 16th. Today: four trades closed at +2R, +2R, +3.6R and -1R, simulated equity 1,077.54 (+7.75%) - though three of those four winners were logged as bad process.
We opened nothing. Crude and gold have already expanded their volatility: an 18% monthly move is the worst entry context, not the best. EUR/USD and the S&P sit exactly on their weekly pivots, 1.1600 and 7,580-7,600, where any invalidation would be arbitrary. USD/JPY at 153.40 was the closest call, and the most instructive: an honest stop belongs above the 155 pivot, giving 190 pips of risk against 140 to 152.00, a ratio of 0.74. Tightening that stop would reach 1.5 by breaking our own rule, so we passed.
August CPI lands at 08:30 ET, the FOMC dot plot on the 16th. Today: four trades closed at +2R, +2R, +3.6R and -1R, simulated equity 1,077.54 (+7.75%) - though three of those four winners were logged as bad process.
Generated with AI assistance and reviewed against a fixed checklist.