Ten-year at 5%, Brent at $109: CPI decides, we wait

The overnight tone stayed defensive. Brent opened near 108.95 and traded 107.85-109.62 after the strikes on Iranian tankers, up from 101.21 at Wednesday's close, more than 8% higher in September. The US ten-year yield pushed toward 5% and futures now price roughly a 70% chance of a Fed HIKE next week; the Bank of Japan also meets. DXY is at 99.07, EUR/USD 1.1609-1.1631 inside yesterday's 1.1620-1.1654 range, GBP/USD 1.3509, gold near one-week lows around 4,310. S&P futures are down 0.5%, Nasdaq futures 1.1%.

August CPI lands at 14:30 CEST, so every intraday horizon opened from this slot contains it. By our own rule, never publish an intraday idea with a tier-1 release inside its horizon, we published nothing. The two closest candidates were a short in gold and a long in crude: gold is the most CPI-reactive instrument on our list, and crude's volatility has already expanded, which leaves no stop behind real structure. BTC was excluded, no reliable quote.