Quiet futures, Exxon back under its breakout, Fed minutes tonight

Morning review at 06:30 UTC: no new ideas by design, because US cash opens at 13:30 UTC and pre-market liquidity distorts any level. Overnight futures barely moved: S&P 500 -0.02%, Nasdaq 100 -0.10%, Dow -0.20% versus yesterday's 20:00 UTC prints. Applied to the cash closes, that puts the S&P 500 near 7,818 (1.98 ATR above its 20-day average of 7,680) and the Nasdaq 100 near 31,193 (2.88 ATR above): both are too stretched for a fresh long under our 1.5 ATR ceiling. The Dow is the only index inside the band, about 51,418, 0.57 ATR below its average of 51,684: it stays on the watch list as a short candidate for the afternoon. The open Exxon long (entry 165.74, stop 164.03) never hit stop or target in regular trading, low 164.34, but it closed at 164.48, back below the 164.91 breakout level: the thesis is weaker, and it will be reassessed in the evening session. VIX 15.0, dollar index +0.26%. Fed minutes at 18:00 UTC: any intraday idea must close before then.