Futures dip before Fed minutes, Dow lags, no new idea

At 10:52 UTC futures were lower: the S&P 500 estimate is 7,799 (-0.25% from the cash-close futures print), the Nasdaq 100 31,048 (-0.56%) and the Dow 51,258 (-0.51%). Basis stable around +0.7%, so no rollover distortion. MA20 and ATR14 were computed on cash history. The S&P sits 1.71 ATR above its MA20 (7,680) and the Nasdaq 100 2.51 ATR above (30,070): both are past the 1.5 ATR late-entry limit, even after this morning's dip. The Dow is the only index inside the band, 0.91 ATR below its MA20 (51,684), so only shorts qualify. A clean invalidation sits above yesterday's 51,672 high, which puts the stop at 1.14 ATR. That only fits a swing horizon, and a swing trade would carry through tonight's FOMC minutes (18:00 UTC). An intraday version closed before the minutes cannot reach a 1.5R target in the time left. The first target would also sit just under the 50,546 twenty-day low. No idea published. VIX 15.6. The Exxon idea stays open: yesterday's regular-session low was 164.34, above the 164.03 stop.