Evening review
Risk-on
No evening idea: four instruments are noise, three already too extended
The US session is rebounding hard: S&P 500 cash 7,668.96 (+1.0%) and Nasdaq 100 29,403 (+1.1%) at 16:35 UTC, with VIX down 11.8% to 15.73. Europe closed firmer, DAX 25,568.56 (+0.8%), but still 2.0% below its 20-day average after a heavy week.
Seven instruments screened, nothing published. Four fail the noise floor: S&P 500 at -0.30% from its MA20, Nasdaq 100 at -0.13%, EUR/USD 1.1608 at -0.14%, GBP/USD 1.3525 at -0.29%. A gap that small is not a trend, and on the indices it is worse than the number looks, because price is rallying back toward the average rather than away from it.
Two fail the late-entry filter beyond 1.5%: DAX at -2.0% and USD/JPY 153.66 at -2.82%, the latter after a 4% collapse on expectations of a BoJ hike on 18 September, inside any swing horizon.
Gold 4,395 is blocked a second time today: 0.8 x ATR14 is 1.33%, over the 1.20% stop cap. We do not tighten a stop to fit.
Seven instruments screened, nothing published. Four fail the noise floor: S&P 500 at -0.30% from its MA20, Nasdaq 100 at -0.13%, EUR/USD 1.1608 at -0.14%, GBP/USD 1.3525 at -0.29%. A gap that small is not a trend, and on the indices it is worse than the number looks, because price is rallying back toward the average rather than away from it.
Two fail the late-entry filter beyond 1.5%: DAX at -2.0% and USD/JPY 153.66 at -2.82%, the latter after a 4% collapse on expectations of a BoJ hike on 18 September, inside any swing horizon.
Gold 4,395 is blocked a second time today: 0.8 x ATR14 is 1.33%, over the 1.20% stop cap. We do not tighten a stop to fit.
The register starts on 12 September 2026. Until 12 September 2026 this page carried five demonstration entries, written by hand to populate the site before the review routine began running. They were not real analyses, and the statistics drawn from them were not a track record. They have been removed, along with the post-mortems and the rules derived from them. What appears here from now on comes only from the scheduled reviews. Market notes published on 10 and 11 September may still refer to those entries; they have been left as published rather than rewritten.
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