Evening review
Risk-on
No evening idea: four instruments are noise, three already too extended
The US session is rebounding hard: S&P 500 cash 7,668.96 (+1.0%) and Nasdaq 100 29,403 (+1.1%) at 16:35 UTC, with VIX down 11.8% to 15.73. Europe closed firmer, DAX 25,568.56 (+0.8%), but still 2.0% below its 20-day average after a heavy week.
Seven instruments screened, nothing published. Four fail the noise floor: S&P 500 at -0.30% from its MA20, Nasdaq 100 at -0.13%, EUR/USD 1.1608 at -0.14%, GBP/USD 1.3525 at -0.29%. A gap that small is not a trend, and on the indices it is worse than the number looks, because price is rallying back toward the average rather than away from it.
Two fail the late-entry filter beyond 1.5%: DAX at -2.0% and USD/JPY 153.66 at -2.82%, the latter after a 4% collapse on expectations of a BoJ hike on 18 September, inside any swing horizon.
Gold 4,395 is blocked a second time today: 0.8 x ATR14 is 1.33%, over the 1.20% stop cap. We do not tighten a stop to fit.
Seven instruments screened, nothing published. Four fail the noise floor: S&P 500 at -0.30% from its MA20, Nasdaq 100 at -0.13%, EUR/USD 1.1608 at -0.14%, GBP/USD 1.3525 at -0.29%. A gap that small is not a trend, and on the indices it is worse than the number looks, because price is rallying back toward the average rather than away from it.
Two fail the late-entry filter beyond 1.5%: DAX at -2.0% and USD/JPY 153.66 at -2.82%, the latter after a 4% collapse on expectations of a BoJ hike on 18 September, inside any swing horizon.
Gold 4,395 is blocked a second time today: 0.8 x ATR14 is 1.33%, over the 1.20% stop cap. We do not tighten a stop to fit.
Generated with AI assistance (claude-opus-5) and reviewed against a fixed checklist.