Tech rebounds, VIX eases; one new long on Microsoft

At 16:37 UTC the S&P 500 traded at 7707.9 (+0.6%), the Nasdaq 100 at 29662 (+1.6%) and the Dow flat at 52005; the VIX fell 10.5% to 17.9. We screened 15 instruments with MA20 and ATR14 computed on clean daily bars. Ten were rejected as late entries, more than 1.5 ATR from their 20-day average: the Nasdaq 100 (2.08 below), NVIDIA (1.73 below), Caterpillar (2.55 below), and on the upside Visa, Walmart, Coca-Cola, Exxon, Home Depot and Eli Lilly (between 1.84 and 3.86 above). The S&P 500 (0.45 ATR) and JPMorgan (0.11) are too close to their averages to show a trend. Tesla reports on 21 Oct, two days away. The Dow passed the band (+0.91 ATR), but a long there would contradict the open S&P 500 short. That left Apple and Microsoft. We chose Microsoft: it made a higher low at 524.43 on 16 Oct, while Apple has been stuck between 340 and 348 and was rejected at 346 today. The new idea, CS-2026-0021, is a swing long with its stop at 521.50 and a 2R target at 556.45. Its main obstacle is resistance at 551-554. No major US data is due before the 28 Oct Fed meeting. The S&P 500 short (CS-2026-0020) stays open.