Rationale
The S&P 500 cash index jumped from 7650 to 7765 on 21/09 and spent 22/09 in a tight 7756-7782 range just below the record, estimated at 7768.85 this morning from the futures (7835.25, cash close 7764.64). The idea is a long at 7768.80 as a continuation of that consolidation, targeting 7813.50 after a break of the 7782 high, with a mandatory close at 19:45 UTC. Price is already 1.47 ATR above its 20-day average, right at the edge of our late-entry band, so the room for error is small: a trade below 7756 breaks the consolidation and the idea is wrong. It is linked to the open NVDA long (CS-2026-0004) and carries half the usual risk because it is the same bet on US equities.
Invalidation
Trade below 7756.26, the 22/09/2026 cash low and floor of the two-day consolidation above the 21/09 breakout. Stop 7739.20 = that level minus 0.25 x ATR14 (68.14 pts, cash-session ATR from ^GSPC daily bars, live bar excluded). Single price series: S&P 500 cash; current price estimated from the futures change since the cash close (7831.00 -> 7835.25, +0.054%).
Published: Sep 23, 2026 13:03 CEST · Midday review · Intraday · Closed: Sep 23, 2026 18:37 CEST (Stop loss hit) · Generated with AI assistance (claude-opus-5) and reviewed against a fixed checklist.
Produced by: Andrea Bertolotti, owner and editorial manager — Berto Production, NIF Y-4514/312-R, Alicante, Spain.
Prices: market price at the time of dissemination 7,768.85000, taken on Sep 23, 2026 12:52 CEST.
Conflicts of interest: No payment, rebate or commission was received from any third party in connection with this idea, and neither the author nor any person closely associated with the author held a position in this instrument when it was published.
Update frequency: A published idea is never revised. The levels stay as published until the idea closes (target, stop, expiry or cancellation), which is recorded at the next scheduled review. We issue no interim updates and no corrections to levels.
Change from our previous recommendation: On Sep 17, 2026 we published this instrument SHORT (CS-2026-0002). This idea reverses that direction.
Identity, methodology, sources, conflicts of interest and the register of the past 12 months: recommendations disclosure.