Ten-year at 5.04% pins every setup: seven instruments, no trade

Seven instruments checked at 11:14 UTC, none published. The 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.04%, the highest since 2007, with fed funds futures pricing roughly 92% odds of a hike tomorrow at 18:00 UTC. Every name on the list trades below its 20-day average, so only shorts were available. Germany 40 at 25,423 is 2.22% under its MA20 and gold at 4,321 is 3.31% under, both beyond the 1.5% late-entry filter; gold also breaks the 1.20% volatility cap at 1.45%. EUR/USD (1.1538) and GBP/USD (1.3478) fail on arithmetic: the 0.60% minimum stop pushes the first target to four times their 14-day ATR, unreachable in half a session. US 500 (estimated cash 7,605) and US Tech 100 (29,088) clear every filter but would still need 1.2% and 1.8% moves before the close, in a market pinned by tomorrow's decision. VIX at 17.17 was not the blocker. One data note: S&P and Nasdaq futures rolled to December on Monday, and that extra 1% is carry, not a rally.