Evening review
Neutral
Weekly review: flat week, 21 trades in, still no proven edge
This week (23-30 October) we published three ideas: US 500 short (CS-0024), US 500 short (CS-0025) and US Tech 100 short (CS-0026). Four positions closed: CS-0024 hit target 1 for +2R, while CS-0025 and the MSFT long CS-0021 both hit their stops for -1R each. CS-0026 never reached its entry and expired, so it does not count. Net result for the week: 0R and 0.00% on the paper account.
What worked: with valid levels the short side on US indices keeps paying, and both stops were set where the idea was proven wrong, not by hope. What did not: the long ideas. Across the full book they average -0.33R over 7 trades, and single stocks average -0.21R over 8.
after 21 closed trades the book is at -0.43% on capital, with a 38% win rate and a profit factor of 0.96. That is break-even at best, and the sample is still too small to tell skill from luck. Every idea so far carried the same conviction score (3), so the score has not yet told us anything. A 2R target hit at a reduced 0.25% risk earned less than a full-size stop lost, and that asymmetry cost us.
Next week: no new rules, because no error has repeated often enough to justify one. Sizing stays at 1% unless a written reason says otherwise, and the conviction score must actually separate ideas. Educational material, not financial advice.
What worked: with valid levels the short side on US indices keeps paying, and both stops were set where the idea was proven wrong, not by hope. What did not: the long ideas. Across the full book they average -0.33R over 7 trades, and single stocks average -0.21R over 8.
after 21 closed trades the book is at -0.43% on capital, with a 38% win rate and a profit factor of 0.96. That is break-even at best, and the sample is still too small to tell skill from luck. Every idea so far carried the same conviction score (3), so the score has not yet told us anything. A 2R target hit at a reduced 0.25% risk earned less than a full-size stop lost, and that asymmetry cost us.
Next week: no new rules, because no error has repeated often enough to justify one. Sizing stays at 1% unless a written reason says otherwise, and the conviction score must actually separate ideas. Educational material, not financial advice.
Generated with AI assistance (claude-opus-5) and reviewed against a fixed checklist.