Oil near 100 and Apple drag the Dow, big indices too stretched to short

Midday check at 12:12 UTC, two and a quarter hours before the US cash open. Only the three indices are assessable at this hour; single stocks wait for the evening review by design. Context is risk-off: WTI at 98.5 and Brent at 106.5 on Middle East tension, the 10-year yield at 4.91%, VIX at 21.5 (up 1.6% on the day, below the 25 ceiling). Apple is down about 4% pre-market after a weak margin outlook, and that is why Dow futures lag at -0.87% while S&P futures are -0.2% and Nasdaq futures +0.15%. Estimated cash levels from the futures: US 500 at 7527 against a 20-day average of 7718, 2.14 ATR below it; US Tech 100 at 28031 against 29779, 2.79 ATR below. Both are far outside the 1.5 ATR band: shorting here is chasing, and longs are forbidden under the average. US 30 is the only one inside the band, 0.94 ATR below its 52031 average, but there is no clean invalidation: a reclaim of the 30 October low at 51564 gives a stop of 0.31 ATR, too tight, and the next level at 51982 gives 1.10 ATR, too wide for an intraday target. No idea published. JOLTS and factory orders arrive at 15:00 UTC, AMD reports after the close, and midterm results land overnight. This is the ninth consecutive review without a signal; the late-entry filter is doing the blocking during this fast selloff.