Seven instruments below their MA20, FOMC with a hike priced: no trade

Evening review, levels sampled at 16:35 UTC. All seven watchlist instruments sit below their 20-day moving average, so the trend filter permits shorts only and every long is barred before we look at a chart. Price/MA20: US 500 cash 7587.75/7676.90 (-1.16%); US Tech 100 28978.53/29359.93; Germany 40 25402.28/26000.68 (-2.30%); gold 4335.80/4515.40; EUR/USD 1.1545/1.1629; GBP/USD 1.3475/1.3564; USD/JPY 155.09/157.58 (-1.58%). Discarded: Germany 40 and USD/JPY for late entry, both beyond 1.5% from the MA20; gold because 0.8x ATR14 is 2.14%, past the 1.20% stop ceiling, and a stop is never tightened to fit; GBP/USD with UK CPI due at 06:00 UTC; US Tech 100 on already-expanded volatility after a 5.9% semiconductor drop. US 500 and EUR/USD cleared the filters and failed on horizon: a minimum stop plus a 1:2 first target puts tp1 between 1.6 and 2.9 daily ATRs away, a multi-day move that would run through tomorrow's FOMC decision, dot plot and press conference at 18:00 UTC, with a hike priced after the ten-year reached 5.00%. VIX at 17.62, up 3.0%, blocks nothing by itself. The calendar does. No signal.