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Evening review Neutral

Tesla stopped out, NVIDIA closed at expiry, JPMorgan short opened

Two long ideas closed today. Tesla opened at 384.90, reversed about 5% and traded through the 369.63 stop at 14:35 UTC without a gap: -1R, on the invalidation we had written. NVIDIA was closed at 224.76 (+0.37R) because it expired tonight and there is no review before then; it never came near its stop, but it stalled under the 230-235 congestion. With the US 500 at 7738 (+0.45%) and VIX at 15.1, the tape is calm, but the picture is split: the Nasdaq 100 sits 2.7 ATR above its 20-day average, while the Dow stays 1.3 ATR below. We opened one idea: a JPMorgan short at 342.54, retesting the 343-345 shelf that broke on 22/09, with the stop at 347.11 and tp1 at 333.40, closing before PCE on 30/09. We rejected Visa (same factor, stop 1.21 ATR), the Dow (stop 1.29 ATR), US 500 and Caterpillar longs (stops 1.38 and 1.50 ATR), and Apple, Microsoft and Home Depot as late entries at 1.6-2.2 ATR. Walmart, Coca-Cola, Lilly and Exxon are still within noise of their averages.

Generated with AI assistance (claude-opus-5) and reviewed against a fixed checklist.

Signals

CS-2026-0009 JPM SHORT Closed

Track record

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