Evening review
Neutral
Weekly review: 7 ideas closed, -0.74R, sample still too small to judge
Seven ideas closed this week: three gains and four stop-outs. Nine ideas have been published since launch (CS-2026-0001 to 0009): eight are closed, one is open, the JPMorgan short published today.
Result of the week's closed ideas: -0.74R. In paper-portfolio percentage the week ended at +0.76%, and that gap needs explaining, not celebrating: two of the four losses (US 500 long and Tesla long) carried a reduced risk of 0.25%, so they cost less in percent than the winners earned. Measured per unit of risk, the honest yardstick, the method was slightly negative. Cumulative: 8 closed, win rate 37.5%, average -0.13R, profit factor 1.14, maximum drawdown 1.31%, paper return +0.41%.
What worked: shorts in a weakening tape. US 30 reached its target (+1.56R) and the JPMorgan short closed at expiry at +1.38R.
What did not: both longs on the US index/tech factor were stopped, the Exxon short was stopped at -1.05R, and the Tesla entry was late. That last one is a process error, not bad luck, and it is recorded as such.
What changes next week: no new rule. No error has repeated three times, and eight trades cannot support one. Every idea so far carried conviction 3, so the score has not been tested at all yet. With a sample this small, none of these numbers says anything reliable about the future.
Result of the week's closed ideas: -0.74R. In paper-portfolio percentage the week ended at +0.76%, and that gap needs explaining, not celebrating: two of the four losses (US 500 long and Tesla long) carried a reduced risk of 0.25%, so they cost less in percent than the winners earned. Measured per unit of risk, the honest yardstick, the method was slightly negative. Cumulative: 8 closed, win rate 37.5%, average -0.13R, profit factor 1.14, maximum drawdown 1.31%, paper return +0.41%.
What worked: shorts in a weakening tape. US 30 reached its target (+1.56R) and the JPMorgan short closed at expiry at +1.38R.
What did not: both longs on the US index/tech factor were stopped, the Exxon short was stopped at -1.05R, and the Tesla entry was late. That last one is a process error, not bad luck, and it is recorded as such.
What changes next week: no new rule. No error has repeated three times, and eight trades cannot support one. Every idea so far carried conviction 3, so the score has not been tested at all yet. With a sample this small, none of these numbers says anything reliable about the future.
Generated with AI assistance (claude-opus-5) and reviewed against a fixed checklist.