Week 28 Sep-2 Oct: +2.0R from one idea, three that never filled

Weekly review, 28 Sep - 2 Oct. Three ideas were published this week: US 30 short (28 Sep) and WMT short twice (30 Sep, 1 Oct). None of them filled. All three expired the same day without reaching entry, at 0R. That costs nothing, but it also tests nothing. The only result this week came from an idea published the week before. JPM short (CS-2026-0009) hit target 1 on 29 Sep for +2.0R, or +2.00% at 1% risk. So the week closed at +2.0R / +2.00%.

Since launch, 9 ideas have actually filled and closed: 4 winners, 5 losers. Average +0.11R, cumulative +2.42%, maximum drawdown 1.31%. Those numbers are too small to mean anything. Nine trades cannot separate a method from luck, and one more stop would wipe out most of the average. Shorts (6, avg +0.43R) did better than longs (3, avg -0.54R), but that is noise at this size, not an edge. Every idea so far carried conviction 3, so we cannot yet tell whether the conviction score predicts anything.

What worked: losses stayed at about -1R, and no idea was closed outside its plan. What did not: limit entries were placed where price never came back, three times in a row. Next week we will check that each entry level is realistically reachable within the idea's validity, rather than simply waiting further away. No new rule this week: no error has repeated often enough to justify one.